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Before I was a data scientist, I was a statistician. For a long time, I thought of that as a liability. Machine learning felt like the way of the future and my statistical training felt like it belonged in the past. But over time, I noticed something. While most data scientists thought in terms of point estimates, I instinctively thought in terms of uncertainty ranges. It turned out that instinct was more valuable than I’d given it credit for. According to Adam DeJans Jr, co-author of The Decision Factory, probability is one of the most overlooked layers in most decision systems and its absence leaves organisations making decisions as if all future uncertainty could be collapsed down to a single number, when that couldn’t be further from the truth. Probability is just one of eight disciplines Adam believes are necessary to build decision systems that actually work. And most data scientists are only fluent in one or two of them. In the latest Value Boost episode of Value Driven Data Science, Adam joins me to walk through the eight disciplines that make up the modern decision stack and where data scientists should focus to close the gaps in their own skill set. In just 12 minutes, you'll discover:
Machine learning is what most data scientists know best. The other seven disciplines are where the opportunities lie. Listen now on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or click the link below: Episode 124: 8 Disciplines Every Decision System Needs Talk again soon, Dr Genevieve Hayes |
Twice weekly, I share proven strategies to help data scientists get noticed, promoted, and valued. No theory — just practical steps to transform your technical expertise into business impact and the freedom to call your own shots.
Suppose you were screening for a rare medical condition that occurs in just 1 in 1,000 people. The test you're using is highly accurate, with a true positive rate of 99% and a true negative rate of 99%. A person tests positive. What is the probability they actually have the condition? The answer, which can be verified using Bayes' theorem, is just 9.02%. That means it's more than 10X more likely that a person who tests positive has received a false positive result than that they actually have...
If your stakeholders could take two rocks, bang them together three times, spin around, and make a better decision, they would. That’s not a criticism. It’s just the truth about what stakeholders actually want. Your stakeholders do not wake up in the morning hoping that a new predictive model will be waiting in their inbox when they arrive at work. And they do not lie awake at night, wishing that the following day their data scientists will present them with more accurate forecasts. What they...
If you discovered AI had drafted large chunks of a report you'd paid a Big 4 consultancy $435k to deliver, how would you react? The mayor of Wellington recently did just that. But the internet is outraged about the wrong thing. Last November, Deloitte recommended Wellington City Council cut 20% of its staff, with ChatGPT to pick up the slack. However, the analysis subsequently turned out to be flawed. And now it turns out AI wrote the report, too. Based on the way it's being reported, it...